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Will, should, might, won't, coinflip: How Utah football's season could shake out

One analyst took to science in order to try and make sense of how Utah football's schedule could shake out.

By Oliver Vandervoort

Chris Gardner/GettyImages
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The excitement is certainly palpable when it comes to the Utah football team’s season in 2024. Cam Rising is back, Kyle Whittingham is still here and the Utes have a wide receiver in Dorian Singer that has people thinking the Utes’ gunslinger is going to have a very effective target.

There are even some people who think the Utes could win the National Championship. In fact, Vegas oddsmakers give them very good odds. The 11th best in the country to be precise.

But there’s still plenty of people who want to know exactly who the Utah football team will beat and who they will lose to. If you’re one of those people, then you need look no further than Kford ratings. 

Utah football will, should, coin flip, might, won’t for the 2024 season 

Kford has sorted the Utes’ schedule into five categories. Will win, should win, coin flip games, might win, and won’t. 

With every game shuffled into these buckets, it’s easier to see where Utah needs to pull off a big win, and where they can’t afford to stumble.

Will win (81-to-100 percent win probability)

  • Southern Utah (99 percent)
  • Baylor (84 percent)
  • Utah State (90 percent)
  • Arizona State (83 percent)
  • Houston (85 percent)
  • BYU (90 percent)

The long and short of this group is that things would have to go wrong for the Utes to not be bowl eligible at the very least.

Should win (61-to-80 percent win probability)

  • Arizona (72 percent) 
  • TCU (74 percent)
  • Colorado (63 percent)

The Buffaloes look to be the toughest to beat of this bunch. However, the two teams do play later in the season. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that CU could be struggling to put up a fight if they’re entering the game with a losing record.

Coin flip (41-to-60 percent win probability)

  • Oklahoma State (44 percent)
  • UCF (54 percent)

As Kford sees it, Oklahoma State is the toughest opponent on the Utes’ schedule. They are the only team where they have less than 50 percent win probability. 

Won’t

Just how good is Utah football going to be in 2024? There isn’t a single game on the schedule that Kford sees as an game they can’t win. There are very few teams in college football with that distinction.

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