How Next Year’s Roster Will Shake Out…
I’m going to take another shot at guessing at how the hoops roster will shake out. I think I’ve got a pretty good idea now of what we’re going to see, and of course the big wild card will be who else gets added to the team.
But I think a great place to start is to take a look at the ESPN stats chart. Removing Jiggy from the chart it probably gives a very nice ranking on the likelihood of each player returning. We have seven incoming guys plus the return of David Foster, that would make eight. That leaves five slots.
The seven best remaining players are…
1. Jason Washburn
2. Chris Hines
3. Cedric Martin
4. Dijon Farr
5. Kareem Storey
6. Javon Dawson
7. Anthony Odunsi
When selecting who is going to remain, we need to start with a pretty simple premise. Larry would run all seven of these guys if he can get five better recruits. Now I’ve been hard on Larry and I will defend every word I’ve said to anyone who wants to have that debate, but that is another time. For this I’ll say I get what Larry is thinking. This blame the old guy, culture change nonsense is only going to go so far. The people who are spouting it will turn on Larry faster than hyenas on a wounded deer. And a six win season uses up a LOT of good will. So Larry is going to need to win fairly big pretty soon. Plus Larry has to know privately Chris Hill will jam than knife into his back as fast as he did it with the last two guys if things don’t go perfectly.
All that being said, if we don’t land another guy, the five to come back will be Washburn, Hines, Martin, Farr and either Storey or Odunsi. Almost every win we had this year is thanks to either, Jiggy, Washburn or Hines. Martin and Farr are on less solid footing and if we bring in both the PG from College of Southern Idaho, Fabyon Harris, and somehow land the Polish center, Prezemek Karnowski, one of them will have to go. It seems like a coin flip, maybe Martin stays by a nose.
That brings us to Kareem Storey or Anthony Odunsi. Now a few weeks ago this seemed like a no brainer, but Storey has struggled of late and honestly where does he fit in. Glen Dean will get most of his minutes, Chris Hines takes the rest and Storey isn’t a good shooter so he can’t back up the two. Plus how many tiny players can one team have. And lets be honest, I like the kid, but is he ever going to be an elite PG?
As for Odunsi, I have the same thought. If Anthony Odunsi ever plays big minutes for us, it means we didn’t get anyone better and we’re probably in trouble. My guess would be he keeps Odunsi, especially if we land another PG or two. Odunsi can at least shoot.
That brings us to some interesting discussion of Hines and Washburn. If we bring in both Harris and Karnowski. What does it do for the roll of these two. Most of Hines minutes at the two will go to Aaron Dotson, most of his minutes at the one will go to Glen Dean. If we bring in another PG plus the freshman SG in Justin Seymour (if he still makes it to Utah), where are Hines minutes?
As for Washburn, we have Foster back, although I don’t have much hope there that he can stay healthy. We have Jeremy Olsen coming in and he will play some. If we bring in Karnowski, he isn’t coming to Utah to sit on the bench. Some assurances will be made.
Both Hines and Washburn will graduate meaning they can transfer without losing a year and play next year. If Larry has decided to move in another direction, I hope he’s honest with these guys about what their place will be and give them a chance to move on if they choose.
The one other wildcard is Justin Seymour. As we told you on Saturday, Justin was ruled academically ineligible for the second half of his senior year and is at some prep school in North Carolina playing and I assume trying to be eligible to come to Utah. There would seem to be a real chance he doesn’t make it to Utah.
So best guess for the roster for next year.
1. Glen Dean
2. Aaron Dotson
3. David Foster
4. Jordan Loveridge
5. Justin Seymour
6. Josh Herilihy
7. Dallin Ballchynski
8. Jeremy Olsen
9. Jason Washburn
10. Chris Hines
11. Cedric Martin
12. Dijon Farr
13. Anthony Odunsi
For each new guy we land start cutting from 13.
I’d love to hear some thoughts on this.