Utah Basketball: The Only Honest Preview of the 2012-2013 Runnin’ Utes
If you’ve followed the Utes since the great cleansing upon the firing of Jim Boylen, you’ve heard a whole lot of positive adjectives. Every signing is a “BIG DEAL.” Every step is clear we’re getting better. Anyone close to basketball seems to be auditioning for the lead in Annie, belting out,
"“THE SUN’LL COME UP TOMORROW,YOU CAN BET YOUR BOTTOM DOLLAR THAT TOMORROW THEY’LL BE SUNTOMORROW TOMORROWWE’LL WIN THE PAC-12 TOMORROWIT’S ONLY A DAY AWAY"
In fact it seems to have become conventional wisdom, everywhere you go, it’s… oh we’re getting better. So I’ve committed to being to be the only person out there questioning conventional wisdom. And here are a couple of questions I’m going to ask.
1. Getting Better than What?
2. Is the path we’re on going to get us anywhere near the top of the Pac-12?
The answer to the first question IS NOT… Last year.
Larry either willingly let go of the talent he had, or he was unable to keep it, either way he doesn’t get credit for blowing up this team and then not sucking as bad the second season. The benchmark is 14 wins against the #26 SOS with a great deal of injuries (Boylen’s final season). We need to be better than that in order to say that we’re even starting to get better. The second step is to measure him against what would have happened if we’d simply brought Boylen back. If we’d brought Boylen back everyone returns plus a couple of recruits. Utah almost certainly would have taken a run at the Pac-12 title. Will Clyburn Pac-12 player of the year.
Now last year was a shockingly down year in the Pac-12, so Larry needs to get us into the top 4 of the conference to actually show progress. And that brings us to the second question, are we on the road to that place? Lets look at the roster to see.
Glen Dean- Dean is a transfer from Eastern Washington. His upside is that he’s very quick, he’s smart and has a good outside shot. But he’s small, very small. And he struggled when facing more talented teams. Plus there are two red flags. First when he first transferred from Eastern, there were no bigger suitors. In fact he’d agreed to return until Larry showed up with his medical school offer. Second, Dean was Eastern’s star player, yet Eastern got better after he left. (Ewing theory anyone)
Aaron Dotson- Dotson is a transfer from LSU. He was very well thought of out of high school. That hasn’t really panned out at all in college. He started 17 games as a freshman, 21 as a sophomore and averaged no better than 6.8 PPG. The red flag with Dotson is that when he decided he wanted to transfer close to home, not a ton of schools leapt at the chance. Oregon and Gonzaga went with other options and Washington never asked him to return.
Jordan Loveridge- The savior of the Utah program according to many Utah fans. We’re already retiring his jersey that has never been worn. The question with Jordan is, where does his upside lay and if it isn’t Keith Van Horn are Utah fans going to call him a bust. Jordan is only 6-6 and won’t be able to physically dominate anyone at this level. If he is “only” someone like Andre Roberson at CU, will Ute fans call him a bust.
Justin Seymour- I’ll cut right to the chase with Seymour who looks like a talented player. His grades were so bad that he was ineligible to play the 2nd half of the season and had to transfer to a basketball factory just to get to Utah. Even if he gets to Utah, doesn’t he have to be considered a giant risk?
Brandon Taylor and Dakari Tucker- I’ll lump these two guys together because I’m guessing we’ll see the same result here, a transfer. They’re both WCC talent. We have Julian Jacobs coming next season, meaning either he or Taylor will be gone. As for Tucker, where does he get minutes. Is he an insurance policy if Seymour flunks out. He’s not better than Loveridge and if Larry is going to make it, he’ll have to have MUCH MORE talented wings coming in the future.
Dallin Balchynski- First I have to ask, how hard was it to grow up with that last name? If you don’t get it, just think about it. As for Dallin, I like his brother at ASU, but I have to question, he couldn’t get off the bench for a bad SUU team, so what’s the deal? If we get something from Dallin, I’ll be surprised.
Jeremy Olsen- I think this kid will really be the surprise of the group. People sort of forget that he was a really big get for Boylen at the time. It will take some time to get rid of the mission rust and having not really played in three years, but if Larry is to have a future at Utah, it will be because Olsen was a great big part of making that happen.
Cedric Martin- If we see a lot of Cedric this year, we should worry. I’d be curious as to why he and not Farr kept this spot.
Renan Lenz- Should be a solid rebounding four who can play some D. If Foster can’t be healthy will probably defend the five some as well. Probably won’t be a big scorer. Utah wanted him so bad we changed our overseas trip from Italy to Brazil just to land him. Hopefully he’s the guy we thought Jay Watkins would be before the injuries.
Jarred Dubois- Saw his scoring average drop every year at Loyola and didn’t really return 100% from his injury. He was transferring because he wasn’t going to have a ton of minutes left with the talent behind him. He’s a mid-level WCC guard who hasn’t improved.
Jason Washburn and David Foster- The last of the Boylen stench left on the program (although Foster was a Giacolletti recruit I believe). I include them together because I think whatever we get from Foster is a bonus. Big men with foot and back problems tend not to do much. And Washburn is what he is. We’ve seen flashes of the talent that had him highly ranked out of high school. But he disappears sometimes. He came on this year in the same way Luke Nevill did his junior year. If Wash can make a similar leap, it would help.
And an odd question, if Foster were to be healthy, where do all the minutes go?
So where does that leave us? Well if we were in the WCC, I think we could be solidly 5th, probably in the MWC as well. But we’re in a wildly improved Pac-12. That puts us down with Arizona St. and Oregon St. for the last three slots.
I think the bigger question to ask is, where is the star on this roster, especially if it isn’t Loveridge. I know it makes a lot of Utah fans (read old white guys) moist to talk about inbounds plays, Norman Dale, four passes before a shot and so on, but if you want to win seriously, you need a player. Even Norman Dale needed Jimmy Chitwood.
And right now, this staff isn’t showing ANY ability to get us on the radar of a player like that.
The outlook for this team, this year and next, comes down to one word…
IF
If a whole bunch of things go very right, and if a lot of possibly bad things don’t happen, this team a season from now could maybe get to 6th. But it is quite unlikely anything gets us into the top 4 by year 4 of Larryball?
What do we do then? Does Larry get extended
And if a whole lot of things don’t go right after year 3?
What do we do then? Do we fire our third coach in 10 years?
Utah basketball, our motto is… IF.